Close

Cart

Total $0.00

Checkout
Ithaca, NY, November 25, 2014 - A study from Cornell introduces a new metric that gives an early warning of distress in the hotel mortgage market. This new "canary in the coal mine" is called the relative risk premium, which is based on the changes in the loan rates charged on hotel loans as compared to loans for office buildings. The relative risk premium is explained in a report from the Cornell Center for Hospitality Research (CHR): "Relative Risk Premium: A New "Canary" for Hotel Mortgage-Market Distress," by Jan A. deRoos, Crocker H. Liu, and Andrey D. Ukhov. All three are faculty members at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration. The report is available from the CHR at no charge.

"We measured the change in hotel loan rates as compared to the change in the loan rates for office buildings, and we found that this relative risk premium predicts changes in the number of hotel loan delinquencies in relation to office loan delinquencies," said Ukhov. "Lenders almost always charge more for hotel loans, because they are viewed as inherently more risky than loans for office buildings. But when that rate spread increases, we can expect a greater challenge for hotel loans."

The analysis by deRoos, Liu, and Ukhov found that office loans are an appropriate benchmark to measure the relative health of hotel loans because office building occupancy has a relationship with the economy and with room-night demand, since business travelers are a major market for the hotel industry. The researchers observed that the rate spreads on hotel loans widen when lenders anticipate higher hotel delinquencies relative to offices and narrow during periods when relative delinquencies for hotels are expected to drop. 

The researchers also found three other predictors of hotel mortgage market distress: an increase in the volatility of hotel REIT returns (risk), a negative shock to expected earnings forecasts (which signals lower expected future profitability), and an increase in unemployment. They also tested whether the relationship between delinquencies and rates ran in reverse, but they found that an increase in relative delinquencies is not useful in predicting a rise in hotel loan rates.

About The Center for Hospitality Research

A unit of the Cornell School of Hotel Administration, The Center for Hospitality Research (CHR) sponsors research designed to improve practices in the hospitality industry. Under the lead of the center's corporate affiliates, experienced scholars work closely with business executives to discover new insights into strategic, managerial and operating practices. To learn more about the center and its projects, visit www.chr.cornell.edu.

Contact: Carol Zhe

caz9@cornell.edu / 607.254.4504

Related News

IDeaS Announces 2017 Cornell Revenue Management Scholarship Recipients

Cornell Presents the 2017 Center for Hospitality Research Sustainability Roundtable Summary

Hospitality Sweet

The 2017 Cornell/ICHRIE Howard B. Meek Award Presented to Dr. Fred DeMicco

Cornell CHR Report Asks: "Do Property Characteristics or Cash Flow Drive Hotel Real Estate Value? The Answer Is Yes”

Cornell Research on Hotel Brand Standards: How to Pick the Right Amenities for Your Property

Cornell Study on Labor Law: When Rules Are Made to Be Broken: The Case of Sexual Harassment Law

Cornell Study Highlights Diversification Benefits of REIT Stock Investments

Cornell Study Examines How Bias Affects Hiring Practices

Roundtable Focuses on High-Tech Adoption in Hospitality Industry

Aimed to Help Hotels Reduce Restaurant Food Waste, Cornell Offers New Tool, FRESH: A Food-service Sustainability Rating

Hospitality Money Managers Should Avoid Short-term Trading According to New Cornell Study

Cornell Tool Allows Restaurants to Evaluate Early Bird & Night Owl Menu Specials Effectiveness

Cornell Study Puts Retaliation Claims in a Class by Themselves

Likely Boost for Hotel Profits According to Cornell Analysis

Improved Hotel Sustainability Benchmarks Outlined by Cornell Study

Changing Regulations Dominate Cornell Human Resources Roundtable

Cornell Study Shows Value of Matching Up a Restaurant's Concept and Service Style

Cornell Study: Hotels Managers Shouldn't Overdo Responses to Online Review

Cornell Study: Charging for Restaurant Reservations May Gain Acceptance

All News »

Please login or register to post a comment.