LODGING ECONOMETRICS | October 30, 2024

The latest Lodging Econometrics (LE) data from Q3 2024 reveals unprecedented growth in Canada’s hotel development pipeline, with key indicators suggesting an expansion phase is underway. The total pipeline has reached a historic peak of 327 projects (40,799 rooms), with year-over-year growth rates of 19% in projects and 8% in rooms indicating strong developer confidence.

Current under construction activity shows remarkable acceleration, with 81 active projects (10,596 rooms) representing a 45% surge in projects and a 29% increase in rooms year-over-year. The early planning phase has experienced the most dramatic growth, with 177 projects (20,435 rooms) showing a 50% project increase but only 14% room growth. This disproportionate growth between project count and room numbers suggests a trend toward smaller-scale developments.  Another 69 projects (9,768 rooms) in Canada are scheduled to begin construction within the next 12 months.

By chain scale, upper midscale hotels lead the pipeline with record numbers – 135 projects (14,219 rooms), representing 41% of total projects and 35% of rooms. The upscale chain scale follows with 56 projects (7,748 rooms). Both midscale and the upper upscale chain scale also reached new highs, with 43 projects (3,718 rooms) and 22 projects (5,066 rooms) respectively, at the end of Q3 ‘24.

Ontario dominates provincial hotel construction, accounting for 59% of projects and 61% of rooms countrywide with record counts of 193 projects/24,697 rooms. British Columbia follows with a record 60 projects/8,420 rooms, while Quebec has 22 projects/2,547 rooms and Alberta with 16 projects/1,647 rooms.

The top cities in Canada at the Q3 close are led by Toronto with 67 projects/9,468 rooms which claims 23% of all the rooms in Canada’s total construction pipeline. Following distantly are Vancouver with 22 projects/3,921 rooms, Niagara Falls with 17 projects accounting for 4,451 rooms, Montreal with 17 projects/2,092 rooms, and Ottawa-Hull, also reaching a record-high project count at Q3, with 14 projects/1,992 rooms. 

During the first three quarters of 2024, Canada had 9 new hotels open, adding an additional 1,004 rooms to the supply of open & operating hotels. LE is forecasting that another 12 hotels (1,359 rooms) will open by year-end 2024 to bring Canada’s total year-end hotel opening count to 21 hotels (2,363 rooms).  In 2025, LE is forecasting another 35 hotels (3,875) rooms to open, which will increase Canada’s supply totals by 1.1%. Scheduled new hotel openings for 2026 are anticipated to be 44 hotels adding another 5,079 rooms, a 1.4% increase in supply.Â