Occupancy levels expected to decline in 2017 after an eight-year run
New York, NY, November 29, 2016 – The updated lodging forecast released today by PwC US anticipates occupancy levels will remain flat in 2016, and average daily rate (ADR) will drive a revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) increase of 2.9%. Supply growth continues to be slightly below previous estimates (1.6%), according to the report.
Looking forward to 2017, acceleration of supply growth – reaching the long-term average of 1.9% – combined with a continued deceleration in demand growth, is expected to result in declining occupancy levels, the first such decline in eight years. ADR growth is expected to slow driving a below-inflationary RevPAR increase of 1.7%, the smallest increase since the end of the recession.
Our outlook
PwC’s outlook, which is based on an economic forecast from Oxford Economics, notes that after a tepid first half, real GDP in the third quarter increased 2.9 percent, driven by a combination of modest increases in consumer spending and stronger-than-expected exports. Uncertainty, both international and domestic, continues to weigh on US lodging industry performance. The impact of the recently concluded US elections, coupled with plateauing growth in corporate profits, is expected to continue to impact corporate transient demand. Additional demand-side concerns, including the strong US Dollar, Brexit, and economic weakness in the Eurozone, as well as Zika and depressed energy sector activity, are all expected to contribute to the continued weakness in lodging sector demand growth.
The updated estimates from PwC are based on a quarterly econometric analysis of the US lodging sector, using an updated forecast released by Oxford Economics and historical statistics supplied by STR and other data providers.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Occupancy
62.8%
59.8%
54.6%
57.6%
60.0%
61.4%
62.3%
64.4%
65.4%
65.4%
64.9%
ADR Growth
6.6%
2.9%
-8.6%
-0.1%
3.8%
4.2%
3.7%
4.6%
4.5%
2.9%
2.6%
RevPAR Growth
6.1%
-2.0%
-16.6%
5.4%
8.1%
6.7%
5.2%
8.2%
6.2%
2.9%
1.7%
Source: PwC US, based on STR data
“While global and domestic uncertainty related to the potential outcome of the US presidential election has now receded, uncertainty is now focused around the economic and social policies of the new administration, and the potential impact on the US economy,” said Scott D. Berman, principal and U.S. industry leader, hospitality & leisure, PwC. “These, among other macroeconomic headwinds will be factors we will be closely watching as we approach 2017.”
