Durham, New Hampshire USA – Business activity for US hoteliers rose to a reading of 118.4 in November according to today's release of the Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) indicator. e−forecasting.com's HIP – a predictive analytic which gauges monthly overall business conditions for hotels earlier than any industry indicator – climbed by 0.4% in November after an increase of 0.2% in October. The index is set to equal 100 in 2005.
HIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in US hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 2.8% in November, following a positive rate of 2.6% in October. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product.
The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 9.3 % in November, down from 10.0% reported in October. When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the US hotel industry has entered a recession.
All demand and supply indicators of current business activity that make up Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in November: Hotel Jobs; Total Spending on Hotels (includes non-room revenues) and Hotel Capacity. None of the three indicators of current business activity had a negative or zero contribution to HIP's change in November.
The latest HIP reading will be used to update e-forecasting.com’s total US Monthly Hotel Forecast as well as market level forecasts for the top 25 US markets. For more information on these forecasts which include two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR, room profitability and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at info@e–forecasting.com with subject: UShotelforecast.
