Analysis by Kelsey Fenerty
American outbound travel was much stronger than anticipated across European markets this year, in part due to mega events such as the Summer Olympics and Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. With the summer months past us, conversations are now swirling around how the U.S. presidential election will impact tourism outside of North America.
Less international travel is standard this time of year
There will be fewer Americans abroad this autumn and winter, which is entirely normal. U.S. schools resumed between mid-August to early-September with corporate conference season following swiftly thereafter. The U.S. holiday period starts soon, with Thanksgiving (28 November) typically meaning a week of break for schools, and Christmas, covering anywhere from two to six weeks of school breaks. Though these breaks are long enough for travel, most Americans opt to stay home to enjoy the holidays with family.
Short-term impact on the U.S., not much internationally
Federal elections in the United States are always the second Tuesday of November, while the Presidential Inauguration is held 20 January unless it falls on a Sunday. Because the last election-to-inauguration period (November 2020-January 2021) occurred during pandemic shutdowns, we look to the period between late-2016 and early-2017 for a better read on the impact.
Election and inauguration monthly hotel performance didn’t stand out from the six months pre- and post-event, but monthly performance changes were more volatile than the average of the other 10 months. Important to note in 2017, January outperformed due a favorable New Year’s Day calendar shift.
Monthly aggregates might smooth out more granular performance trends, though. At least in the U.S., group travel takes a dive during election week as voters stay home to hit the polls.
Weekly hotel performance data doesn’t reveal any major changes in year-over-year (YoY) percentage changes. There’s normal volatility and event shifts, but any decline in U.S. travel is small enough to be covered by other demand.
The U.S. capital, D.C., is a “hotbed” of group demand and highly reliant on government travel, thus there is a huge dip in hotel occupancy on election day and the prior week. However, we see a quick lift afterwards. New York City, one of the biggest and most in-demand U.S. markets, looks a touch soft for election day only.
Travel patterns
Data from Oxford Economics also shows that U.S. inbound travel continues to rise YoY during election years.
Keep in mind, that there are some outliers in the above chart:
- France: Inbound arrivals and 10-month occ average declined YoY due to terror attacks in November 2015.
- Czech Republic: Inbound U.S. travel was unusually high in 2015 (potentially Ice Hockey Championships) and 2016 is an offset.
- Italy has increasingly become a popular tourist destination over the last few years.
2024 election impact on U.S. hotel bookings
While outbound American travel doesn’t seem to be impacted by the election, U.S. hotel bookings are showing an impact, as shown in STR’s Forward STAR data.
Conclusion
The United States election remains a popular talking point, but despite all the fervor around the topic, there are likely limited impacts to travel plans and hotel performance indicators.
