Aaron Szyf
The Economic Rollercoaster
Aaron Szyf | October 16, 2023
By Aaron Szyf It seems like we’re on an economic rollercoaster right now and the big question is when we get off. When does inflation cool? We dig into the latest data to help determine if a soft landing really is where we’re heading. After renewed expectations of a recession in recent weeks, as summarized in our earlier blog, it now seems like the prospects of a “soft landing” have increased. Shocking jobs data: Last Friday, BLS surprised economists when it announced that the economy added 336,000 jobs in September, way above the 170,000 increase that was expected and above the monthly average of 267,000 over the past ye...
Converging Factors: Is a Soft Landing Possible?
Aaron Szyf | October 3, 2023
With mixed economic data, economists—for over a year—have been warning of a possible recession sometime in 2023, though they seem to have consistently pushed the can down the road. By Aaron Szyf As we enter the final quarter of the year, is this recession still happening? And what does this mean for travel? Optimism, among some: To the delight of many, in recent weeks, the term “soft landing”—an ideal situation when the Fed can raise interest rates just enough to curb high inflation but without causing a recession—has been gaining traction. In fact, Goldman Sachs has significantly cut their recession odds over the nex...
How Three—or Four—Factors Have Combined to Increase Travel’s Affordability
Aaron Szyf | August 4, 2023
A combination of increased wages, cooling overall inflation and declining travel prices have recently made travel more affordable. By Aaron Szyf Below, we take a deep dive into the data and what it means for travel. By the numbers: • Wages: Average private sector wages were up 4.4% in June year-over-year (YOY). This exceeds the rate of inflation (3.0% YOY), meaning that purchasing power has increased. • Overall inflation: Overall inflation moderated in June. While prices were still up 3.0% YOY, this is the lowest YOY increase since March 2021. • Travel inflation: While overall prices moderated, travel prices d...
