Geopolitical Events, Fear and the Hotel Market

Bram Gallagher | January 28, 2016

By Bram Gallagher, Economist at PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE Company Conventional hotel market predictions are based on time series analysis of key variables, and these kinds of predictions have well-understood properties when businesses operate as usual. Exogenous demand shocks—shocks originating beyond the scope of any particular hotel market—have the potential to create unpredictable disturbances, in part by creating emotional or psychological barriers to travel that we call stigma or fear of travel. Previous research by PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE company, into exogenous demand shocks examined fear of travel bro...