joel ross
Reality Check on Hotel Performance, Forecasts
Joel Ross | April 6, 2017
by Joel Ross Hotel values have been in decline, along with occupancy, while cap rates and supply rise; and it's not all Donald Trump's fault. Apparently at the Americas Lodging and Investment Summit and Hunter Hotel Investment Conference, once again, the story was the industry is fine, although slower. Everyone only wants to talk revenue per available room, not net operating income, and any decline in occupancy is now all President Donald Trump's fault. The American Hotel & Lodging Association touts its futile efforts to try to stop Airbnb, yet three of its young founders are on the Forbes billionaire list at $3.8 billion each and B...
The Industry Needs to Deal with Reality
Joel Ross | October 13, 2016
Joel Ross makes a case for why RevPAR is completely irrelevant in projecting growth in the hotel industry. by Joel Ross The pundits had it totally wrong in 2008, and they were off by more than 50% this past January. Still, they think they can project 2017 when the Federal Reserve can't even figure out what the economy will be doing 60 days from now. The industry continues to focus on revenue per available room instead of cash flow and actual value. It ignores what the impact of capital markets and the world outside the hotel industry will have on hotel cash flow and value. For example, RevPAR is unaffected by changes in minimum-wage la...
The Slowdown Goes On
Joel Ross | August 31, 2016
Don't believe the positive 2017 U.S. and global forecasts you've been reading. Rather, be prepared, for the worst is yet to come. By Joel Ross As the weeks move on, occupancy continues to be negative as it has for most of the year. Recent numbers show a decline of 1.5%, and revenue per available room continues well below the levels projected by all the pundits at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit and the NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference. It is surely not the "Golden Age," nor the sweet spot for hotels espoused by many. It is about time everyone admitted the reality that the hotel industry peaked in 2015....
Hoteliers, the Party is Over; Act Now
Joel Ross | March 2, 2016
By Joel Ross The black swans have landed and the party is over. U.S. hotels' revenue per available room in January grew 2.4%, according to STR data. Results for the week ending 13 February saw RevPAR up 0.2%* and occupancy down 3%. For months, the investors in the stock market have said hotels will get softer results, but the industry pundits at the Americas Lodging Investment Summit refused to pay attention. Although the macro situation is very different, and we are not having a financial crash and likely not a recession, the hotel industry pundits and others are acting just as they did in 2008 at ALIS—ignoring the world outside ...
