US Leisure Strength Unsustainable; RevPAR Likely to Turn

Fitch Ratings | September 20, 2016

New York-20 September 2016: Fitch Ratings expects mid-single digit U.S. leisure transient lodging demand growth to decelerate to the low single digits against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk, US dollar (USD) strength, growth in alternative lodging accommodations and Zika-virus related health concerns. Lodging companies have cited relative leisure strength as an offset to weak corporate transient demand. This, in combination with weak corporate and decelerating group demand, supports our expectation for RevPAR to turn negative in 2018.

 Leisure transient demand is further removed but not immune to the negative effects o...