by Georges Panayotis
Dinosaurs lived fairly peaceably in the Jurassic Era. All they had to protect themselves from was bad weather and attacks by a few well known large predators. This kept up their vigilance and relative agility. And then the first meteorites hit Earth, without major consequences at first, until more important impacts brought about their disappearance from the planet.
In the Roaring Twenties a certain carefreeness was the rule too. The Western world was coming out of the Great War and was rebuilding itself. Modernity made its way into homes and fortunes were built fast, too fast maybe, fed by speculation that led to the Crash in 1929.
Although history doesn’t repeat itself identically – thankfully – it is full of lessons that should help prevent us from repeating the same mistakes. The recent Global Lodging Forum largely insisted on the increased awareness that must inhabit each corporate executive regarding the implacable evolutions that threaten, sometimes insidiously, today’s business models. The good news is that the hotel industry appears to have clear ideas, after negating several warnings and missing a few strategic turns.
But there are still a great gap to cross and many steps to take between becoming aware and implementing new operating and development models. The lack of renewal of “traditional” accommodation supplies opened the way to new concepts that laugh at old rankings and classic segmentations. They still have difficulty making their way within the current framework, but the barriers will ultimately be broken and properties belonging to hoteliers that did not successfully evolve will at best become obsolete and at worst ousted from the market.
As before any fatal crisis, it is a period of calm before the storm; the radar all too quiet. Hotel results are generally good, with some pockets of weakness that can always be explained. Accustomed to the phenomenon of hotel cycles with ascendant and descendant phases, managers are not too concerned about seeing today’s results max out on certain markets, as long as growth relays continue to boost figures elsewhere. But does the very principle of cycle remain relevant? It has become chaotic and capricious, with indicators pointing in all directions feeding the intrigue of the best analysts.
The first meteorites are raining down on the hotel planet. They must not be taken lightly; it is high time to start planning for change. We are not alone in the galaxy. Other stars will begin to shine. It is crucial to realistically pursue the considerations raised during exchanges at the Global Lodging Forum and avoid allowing the last episode of Star Wars to transpose itself in our universe.
