Durham, New Hampshire USA – Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations are averaging $216.25 this May, up from $213.85 in April, according to trivago hotel price indices¹ (tHPI) released today. The U.S. online average daily rate (oADR), the industry’s best analytic for competitive pricing, currently ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $380 to a low of $123 this May. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2016 about 65% of all reservations are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth eight years ago.
On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online ADR is up (+1.5%) in May from a year ago, lower than the previous month's year-over-year growth rate of (+12.2%). This May, the average trivago online room rate in Boston, despite a dip of (−6.4%) from last year, hit $380 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets. New York takes the second place in May with an online room rate of $359, after a drop of (−3.2%) from a year ago. In Washington D.C., the online room rate in May is growing (+6.7%) from last year to $350 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.
At the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this May are: Salt Lake City recording a trivago online ADR of $130 a night after a (+0.8%) change from a year ago; Phoenix posts an online ADR of $123 following a (+3.4%) change from last year; and lastly, the most affordable popular destination in the country is San Antonio with an online ADR of $123 after a nil change from a year ago. With a median online ADR of $183 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, Denver is the country's average affordable city to visit this May.
Moving from data to hotel-biz-analytics®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² U.S. average online room rate has hit $199 in May. On a month-over-month basis – the hoteliers' analytic for tracking changes of what's now vs. what's happened in comparison to twelve months ago – the SSA online ADR this May is up (+0.2%) from the previous month, which is the same percent change as in the previous month. Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in May ranges from a high of (+2.0%) in Phoenix to a low of (−1.0%) in Washington D.C.. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the SSA online monthly room rate is growing in 14 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 11 cities.
"The latest US Monthly Hotel Forecast predicts profits per online room rates to decline on a year-over-year basis in the second half of 2016," said Maria Sogard, CEO of eforecasting.com. For a complimentary copy of the full US Monthly Hotel Forecast with two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR, costs per room, profitability and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at info@e-forecasting.com with subject: USHOTfcast.
Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per room are flat on a year-over-year basis in May, since U.S. trivago's average online room rate has gained (+1.5%) while e−forecasting.com national unit (per room) cost index is up (+1.3%). For U.S. hoteliers, year-over-year profit margins posted a reading of (+10.1%) in the previous month (April), compared to a mark of (+2.5%) a year ago (May 2015). Using trivago's online hotel room rates for the top-25 U.S. destinations and e−forecasting.com's city-centric hotel unit (room) cost indices, year-over-year percent change in profits per room currently range from a high of (+10.6%) in Los Angeles to a low of (−11.4%) in Houston in May. Amongst the top-25 destinations, profits per room are up in 14 cities; they are down or are flat in 11 cities.
On tracking monthly the risk for business losses in providing services per room, the probability for U.S. hoteliers being in a negative profits (losses) phase of the industry's business cycle hit 27% in May, which is higher than April's reading of 24%. In the top-25 hotel destinations, the risk for hoteliers being in a period of losses per room in May ranges from a high of 99% in Seattle to a low of 1% in Indianapolis. The probability of losses per room is above 50% in 11 cities; it is 50% or below in 14 cities.
